Stat Correlations with Fantasy Success
Which advanced metrics correlate most with top positional finishes?
Select a metric above to view scatter plot
QB Bust Indicator
Two-step test: Sack Rate ≥ 8.7% or ANY/A ≤ 6.5 flags bust risk
Sack Rate vs ANY/A — Flagged vs Clear
Dynasty Value Analysis
Comparing dynasty market value against stat-based expected value
| Player | Pos | Team | College | Last Active | Age | Dynasty Value | Expected Value | Diff | Valuation | Pos Rank |
|---|
Rookie & Young Player Predictor
Stat profiles of breakout players vs busts — current young players scored against those benchmarks
Breakout Candidates (NFL Years 1 to 3)
Real NFL players from the 2024, 2025, and 2026 draft classes (sourced from Sleeper via years_exp). Each scored player has been joined to their Pahowdy college profile and run through a per-position model. Score is a weighted z-score of leak-free college features that historically correlated with top-12/16/24 fantasy finishes within the first 3 NFL seasons.
| Rank | Player | Pos | Class | College | NFL Team | Score | Coverage | College Leaderboards | Top Drivers |
|---|
Model Picks
Players the prediction model is more bullish on than the dynasty market, and weekly ADP movers.
Rookie Board (Buy / Hold / Sell)
Model rank vs. market rank for each rookie class, per scoring format. Negative gap means the model is higher on the player than the market. The Residual column strips draft capital out so you can see who the model likes on talent alone.
| Player | Pos | Class | College | Pick | P(hit) | P(skill) | Residual | RAS | Model Rk | Market Rk | Gap | Verdict |
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Model Calibration
For each (format, position) the chart compares predicted hit probability against the actual hit rate at that probability bucket. A perfectly calibrated model sits on the diagonal. Brier score is mean squared error of the probabilities (lower is better, base rate is the no-skill baseline).
Player Deep Dive
Search any player to see all advanced metrics across seasons